Duval County

Duval County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.54%, which places it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum, leaning modestly toward the cash-flow side without quite delivering it. The cap rate of 4.25% is workable on paper but does not survive financing. At a 6.85% interest rate on a 20% down purchase at $292,596, the monthly mortgage comes to $1,534, and when you layer in estimated expenses of $559, total monthly carry exceeds the $1,596 median rent by $497. The resulting cash-on-cash return of negative 8.86% means a financed buy-and-hold at median price and median rent is a loss every month. The market's appreciation score of 35 out of 100 offers little comfort, and the year-over-year home price decline of 3.0% confirms that Duval is not currently compensating for negative carry with price growth. The overall score of 54 out of 100, ranking 482nd out of 1,000 counties nationally (36th percentile), reflects a county that offers neither a clean cash-flow story nor a credible near-term appreciation thesis.

Given those numbers, Duval is not a county for a buyer who needs the property to service itself from day one at standard leverage. The investor this county suits best is either an all-cash or low-leverage buyer who can push the cap rate of 4.25% closer to actual yield by eliminating or minimizing debt service, or a value-add operator who can acquire below median, force rent above $1,595, and underwrite to a different basis entirely. The affordability index of 63 and median household income of $65,579 indicate a renter pool that exists and has spending capacity, but that same affordability index also signals that the market has not priced out renters in favor of owner-occupants, which limits the upward pressure on rents. An appreciation buyer has little quantitative support here right now, with prices down year-over-year and an appreciation score in the bottom third.

At $380 per month, the combined tax and insurance carry is a meaningful line item but not a market-killer. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.89% carries a "normal" flag, and that is accurate: it is neither the tailwind you get in Alabama or South Carolina nor the drag you fight in Illinois or New Jersey. The insurance rate of 0.67% embedded in these figures may, however, understate actual Florida coastal exposure for properties in flood-prone ZIP codes within Duval. The note accompanying this data is honest that these are state-average estimates, and county or township rates, plus property-specific flood and wind coverage, can shift the real monthly number materially. Any underwrite for Duval should be stress-tested with actual insurance quotes before committing, not a state average.

The primary structural risk in Duval is the cash-flow gap at current financing costs combined with flat-to-declining prices, which leaves a financed investor exposed on both ends simultaneously. A 3.0% price decline on a $292,596 asset with 20% down erases roughly $8,800 in paper equity in year one, against an annual cash loss near $5,964. That is a combined first-year drag approaching $15,000 on a $58,519 equity position. The county's population of nearly one million provides some demand depth and argues against a thin, illiquid market, but scale alone does not fix the entry math at today's rates.

Duval's neighbor comparison reveals a clear pattern: every county in this peer group with a meaningfully higher rent-to-price ratio also carries a higher overall score. Polk County at 7.41% rent-to-price and Marion County at 7.13% both outperform Duval's 6.54% on that metric, and both score 53 overall, which is close to Duval's 54 despite having significantly better gross yield profiles, suggesting Duval's scale and stability components are doing some work to keep it competitive. Clay County has the highest median home price in the group at $331,840 but a rent-to-price of 6.60%, nearly identical to Duval, and a higher price basis that makes the financing math even harder. Leon County at 6.15% is the weakest yielder in the group and ranks no better than Duval despite a lower price point. Columbia County at $265,072 and 6.51% rent-to-price is the closest analog on yield but at a lower absolute price, which tightens the dollar gap between rent and carry. An investor should choose Duval over its neighbors specifically when the strategy centers on population depth, tenant pool size, and liquidity at exit, not when the goal is maximizing gross yield, where Polk and Marion are the cleaner choices in this comparison set.