Lake County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.51%, which places it firmly on the appreciation side of the cash-flow vs. appreciation spectrum. The cap rate on a median-priced asset comes in at 4.23%, and at a 6.85% financing rate the math does not pencil for a leveraged cash-flow buyer: the model underwrite shows negative $660 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -8.95% on a $76,907 down payment. Year-over-year home price growth of 5.93% is the engine this market runs on, and the appreciation score of 89 out of 100 reflects that. The overall score of 69 and a national percentile rank of 83rd out of 1,000 counties tells you this is a well-regarded market nationally, but the stability score of 50 is a quiet warning that the ride is not smooth.
The numbers point clearly toward an appreciation buyer or a longer-horizon wealth-builder, not a cash-flow operator. With a median home price of $384,534 and a median household income of $104,553, the affordability index of 75 suggests the local renter pool has real income depth, which supports rent retention but does not solve the leverage problem at today's rates. A cash-flow buyer should pass unless they can find assets priced meaningfully below the median, either through distressed acquisition or a value-add play that lifts rents above the $2,086 median. For someone allocating to appreciation and willing to carry a modest monthly deficit, the 5.93% price growth gives them a reasonable case, particularly if they underwrite a hold of five-plus years and expect rate relief to improve cash flow over time.
The property tax situation deserves its own line on any underwrite, and that is not an overstatement. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, one of the highest in the country, and the data flags it as "very high." On a $384,534 purchase that translates to $8,729 in annual taxes, or roughly $727 per month before you pay a dollar of insurance. Add the estimated $87 monthly insurance cost and your combined tax-and-insurance carry is $814 per month. That single line item nearly wipes out a full month of gross rent. These figures use a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the honest caveat is that actual county and township rates in Lake County can differ, potentially materially. Before closing on any specific asset, get the actual tax bill, not an estimate, because the gap between the state average and the local levy could move your underwrite in either direction by hundreds of dollars per month.
Compared to its neighbors, Lake County is the most expensive market in this peer group and carries the weakest rent-to-price ratio. Cook County at 8.06% gross yield and a median price of $314,516 is the most compelling alternative for a buyer who wants Chicago-metro exposure with better day-one cash-flow optics. Will County at 7.05% and $361,064 sits between the two and scores identically to Lake at 69 overall. Kane County at 6.64% is close to Lake in both price and yield and scores one point lower. McLean and Adams counties show lower absolute prices and rents but similar rent-to-price ratios in the 6.5% to 6.7% range, making them cash-flow-neutral alternatives that swap appreciation potential for affordability. If your thesis is appreciation and income-demographic quality, Lake County's median household income of $104,553 and 5.93% price growth make it the strongest choice in this group. If your thesis is yield and cash flow, Cook County's 8.06% gross ratio at a lower entry price is the more honest allocation. Choose Lake when you are buying the income profile and price trajectory of Chicago's north suburban corridor and can absorb the carrying costs; choose Cook or Will when the monthly math matters more than the zip code.
The stability score of 50 is worth watching. It does not indicate a distressed market, but it signals that this county has more variance in its return profile than a score in the 70s or 80s would. Combined with a tax burden that is structurally embedded and not a one-year anomaly, investors should stress-test their underwrite against a scenario where price growth moderates to 2% to 3% annually. At that growth rate and current financing costs, the case for Lake County weakens considerably unless rents move meaningfully above the current $2,086 median.
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $288,401 | -$156/mo | 5.6% | -2.8% |
Median typical MLS deal | $384,534 | -$660/mo | 4.2% | -8.9% |
125% of median newer / premium | $480,668 | -$1,164/mo | 3.4% | -12.6% |
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Based on 6.51% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 5.9% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Price-to-income ratio of 3.7x. Lower ratios indicate more affordable markets.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Lake County in Illinois scores 69/100, ranking #129 of 1,000 US counties (top 17%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $660/month; the 6.51% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.
Use our investment calculators to run detailed numbers on specific properties.