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Market MapMichiganBay

Bay County

MichiganPopulation: 103,752Saginaw, MI Metro
77
/100
Buy for appreciation
#0 of 0 counties
#2 in Michigan (83 counties)
Analysis by RentalCalcs Research·Independent data + algorithm-driven scoring
Updated May 18, 2026Sources: Zillow ZHVI, Zillow ZORI, US Census ACS, Tax Foundation

Market Snapshot

$181,671
Median Home Price
0% below national median
$1,181/mo
Median Rent
0% below national median
7.80%
Rent-to-Price Ratio
Top 50% nationally
-$184
Est. Monthly Cash Flow
With 20% down at 6.9% rate

Scenario comparison

Same $1,181/mo rent assumption, 20% down, 6.85% rate. What changes is the acquisition price.
ScenarioPurchase priceMonthly cash flowCap rateCash-on-cash
75% of median
value-add or distressed
$136,254+$54/mo6.8%+2.1%
Median
typical MLS deal
$181,671-$184/mo5.1%-5.3%
125% of median
newer / premium
$227,089-$422/mo4.1%-9.7%

Price History

Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI

Quick Investment Calculator

20%
5%50%100%

Purchase

Purchase Price$181,671
Down Payment (20%)$36,334
Loan Amount$145,337
Interest Rate6.85%

Monthly Cash Flow

Gross Rent+$1,181
Monthly P&I-$952
Est. Expenses (35%)-$413
Net Cash Flow-$184/mo
5.1%
Cap Rate (all cash)
-5.3%
Cash-on-Cash Return
7.80%
Rent-to-Price Ratio
Negative leverage: At 6.85% rates, borrowing costs exceed the 5.1% cap rate. All-cash buyers may see better returns.

* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.

Run Full AnalysisTry House Hack Strategy

Score Breakdown

Overall Investment Score
77/100
77
Cash Flow(30%)
78/100

Based on 7.80% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.

Appreciation(25%)
93/100

Based on 7.3% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.

Stability(25%)
50/100

Population data not available.

Affordability(20%)
91/100

Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.

Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.

Investment Outlook

Strengths

  • +Strong price appreciation (+7.3% YoY)
  • +Affordable relative to local incomes
  • +Complete rent data available

Challenges

  • -Negative leverage (cap rate 5.1% < mortgage rate 6.9%)

Economic Indicators

Population
103,752
Median Income
—
Data pending
Unemployment Rate
—
Data pending
Price-to-Income
—
Data pending

Who this market fits

Best for
  • +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
  • +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
  • +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
  • +Value-add operators who can buy below median and force rent up
Skip if
  • −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
  • −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)

Compare to Nearby Counties

CountyVerdict
WayneMI
78$172,107$1,3759.59%Strong BuyView
CurrentBayMI
77$181,671$1,1817.80%Strong Buy
IronMI
75$138,682Est. pending—Strong BuyView
GratiotMI
75$172,768Est. pending—Strong BuyView
SaginawMI
74$164,018$1,0597.74%BuyView
KeweenawMI
73$196,365Est. pending—BuyView

The Bottom Line

Buy for appreciationBay scores strongly overall, but a leveraged buy-and-hold loses $184/mo at current rates. Best fit for appreciation-focused buyers, all-cash operators, or value-add deals below median.

Bay County in Michigan scores 77/100, ranking #0 of 0 US counties (top 50%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $184/month; the 7.80% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.

Monthly Cash Flow
$-184/mo
Cap Rate
5.1%
Cash-on-Cash
-5.3%

Related markets

Markets like Bay with stronger cash flow

  • Wayne County for cash-flow rentals
  • Saginaw County for cash-flow rentals

Cheaper alternatives to Bay

  • Iron County, lower entry price
  • Saginaw County, lower entry price
  • Wayne County, lower entry price

Head-to-head comparisons

  • Bay vs Wayne for rentals
  • Bay vs Iron for rentals
  • Bay vs Gratiot for rentals
All counties in Michigan →

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