Alachua County

Alachua County sits at 6.46% gross rent-to-price, which places it on the lower end of cash-flow territory, not deep value country. The model underwrite at $305,454 purchase price, 20% down, and a 6.85% rate produces a monthly mortgage of $1,601 against estimated rent of $1,645, leaving almost no room before expenses enter the picture. Once you add the $576 in estimated monthly expenses, the projected cash flow goes negative at -$532 per month, translating to a -9.09% cash-on-cash return. The cap rate of 4.2% tells the same story: you are buying an asset that yields less than a Treasury at current prices. Home prices are also down 2.29% year-over-year, so you are not getting compensated on the appreciation side either. The affordability index of 50 and median household income of $57,566 put meaningful limits on how far rents can realistically stretch from here, which caps the organic path to making the numbers work.

Given those figures, Alachua is not a county for a straightforward buy-and-hold cash-flow buyer at today's prices and rates. The cash-flow score of 65 suggests relative competitiveness within the national dataset, but the actual underwrite is negative, and the appreciation score of 39 rules out leaning on price growth to make the hold worthwhile. Where Alachua can work is for a value-add operator who can acquire below the $305,000 median, force equity through renovation, and either reposition rents above the $1,645 median or refinance into a lower basis later. A buyer targeting distressed or off-market properties at, say, $240,000 to $260,000 would see the cap rate and cash-on-cash move meaningfully. At that basis, the rent-to-price ratio climbs above 7.5%, and the monthly mortgage drops enough to get cash flow into breakeven or slight positive territory even with current rates.

The economic foundation of Alachua County centers on the University of Florida, which is the dominant institutional anchor for both employment and rental demand. A major research university of that scale generates a consistent pipeline of graduate students, faculty, staff, and university-adjacent workers who need housing, particularly in the sub-$1,800 rent range where the median sits. That demand base is more durable than cyclical industries and provides some insulation from employment shocks, though it also creates seasonal vacancy risk around the academic calendar and a renter pool that trends younger and lower-income, consistent with the $57,566 median household figure.

Monthly tax and insurance combined run $397 on the model underwrite, built from a 0.89% state-average effective property tax rate and a 0.67% insurance rate, adding up to roughly $4,766 annually. The tax flag is "normal," so the rate does not warrant special attention the way a high-tax state would, but the insurance component in Florida is real. The $2,047 annual insurance estimate reflects the broader Florida market, and in practice, actual quotes in Gainesville can run higher depending on age of structure, roof condition, and carrier. That $397 combined monthly figure is already baked into the -$532 cash flow estimate, so do not underwrite insurance any lower than what carriers are actually quoting on specific properties.

The primary risk in Alachua is concentration. A county of 279,729 people built substantially around a single university has its demand thesis tied to that institution's enrollment trajectory, state funding decisions, and any structural shift in how students consume off-campus housing. Enrollment volatility, online program expansion, or a significant on-campus housing build-out could soften rental demand over a multi-year hold. The -2.29% price decline year-over-year also signals that sellers currently have more motivation than buyers, which matters for exit strategy. If you need to sell in a down cycle, the buyer pool in a smaller college town is thinner than in a major metro.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Alachua's 6.46% rent-to-price ratio is the weakest of those with rent data. Citrus County shows 7.39%, Brevard County 6.83%, and Duval County 6.56%, all scoring the same overall 52. Citrus in particular stands out: lower median prices at $269,826, higher rent-to-price, and a ratio that clears 7.3%, which means the cash-on-cash math starts in a better place before any negotiation. Brevard offers higher absolute rents at $1,921 and a better ratio, though its higher price floor means a larger capital commitment. Duval, with Jacksonville's diversified employment base, likely carries lower concentration risk than a single-university market at a comparable price point. Choose Alachua over its neighbors specifically when you have identified properties well below median, have direct access to the university rental ecosystem, or have a value-add thesis that is property-specific. On a straight underwrite at asking prices, the numbers favor Citrus or Brevard.